Covid 19 – Phase 2.1 – Day 2

225,435 positives in Italy. Up 0.3% – 31,908 total deaths since beginning of the outbreak.

There are 1,424 positive cases in Umbria. 73 total deaths. Two new cases, zero additional deaths.

1,496,509 cases in the US – 89,874 deaths.
I enjoyed this article from The NY Times...I excerpted it…

Life in NYC felt pretty normal in early March…in hindsight, we know that the coronavirus was then sweeping across the city. Deaths peaked in early April. And the typical time from contraction to death is from three to five weeks — which suggests early March was near the peak for transmission.

Over the next couple of weeks, it’s going to be important to keep this recent history in mind. Without mass testing — and the United States is not doing mass testing — there is a lag before a virus outbreak becomes apparent. Most people who develop symptoms don’t do so for at least five days, and sometimes longer. The worst symptoms usually take almost three weeks to appear.

With more parts of the U.S. starting to reopen, many people will be tempted to look at the data this week and start proclaiming victory over the virus. But this week’s data won’t tell us much. It will instead reflect the reality from early May and late April, when much of the country was still on lockdown.

The data are always two or three weeks old,” Ezekiel Emanuel of the University of Pennsylvania told me. “And we have a hard time understanding that things are different from what we’re looking at.” Crystal Watson of Johns Hopkins University told The Associated Press that we wouldn’t really know how reopening had affected the virus’s spread for five to six weeks.

It’s possible that the reopenings won’t cause the outbreaks that many epidemiologists fear — because many people will still stay home, or because they will venture out cautiously, or because the virus may spread more slowly in warmer air. But it’s also possible that the country will find itself suffering through a new wave of outbreaks in June.

Either way, I’d encourage you not to leap to premature conclusions.

And all of the above will pertain to all countries trying to reopen, including Italy. Caution and care is advised.
This morning I took a walk early along the river. Cool morning air, few people out.

Enjoy your day! 🌈

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